Research shows that airdrop tokens often experience a significant drop within 15 days! What conditions are needed to break through against the trend?
Dropped tokens experience a significant drop within 15 days
A recent study by cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock shows that 88% of tokens issued through airdrops this year experienced a decline after three months, with the majority experiencing a significant drop within 15 days of the airdrop.
Keyrock wrote in the report:
In the first few days after the airdrop, the price fluctuates the most. After three months, only a few tokens can achieve positive returns, and only a very small number can break this trend later
The practice of token airdrops was initially intended to reward users who contributed to the early success of the protocol, but in recent years, airdrops have been increasingly used as a means of attracting users and drawing attention to the protocol. With the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, Bitcoin soared to a historic high, and the market's enthusiasm for airdrops reached its peak, causing prices of other cryptocurrencies to rise as well.
Despite the high market atmosphere, the price performance of most airdrop tokens this year has been unsatisfactory. However, a small number of airdrops have still been successful.
What kind of airdrop can be successful?
The market generally believes that the more tokens a project airdrops, the worse its market performance will be. This viewpoint is not difficult to understand, as airdrops often result in lucky users receiving tokens worth thousands of dollars, and most users are eager to cash out this unexpected windfall. In addition, many "witch attackers" with multiple accounts are lurking in these airdrop projects, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of tokens being sold. However, the actual data does not fully support this common view.
Keyrock states:
Contrary to common belief, large-scale airdrops do not always lead to selling. One project airdropped 70% of its tokens but still achieved positive returns, indicating that FDV management is more important
FDV (fully diluted valuation) refers to the total value of all tokens in circulation, including tokens that have not yet been unlocked or distributed. Keyrock pointed out that there are two reasons for the poor performance of high FDV airdrop token prices.
Firstly, projects with excessively high FDV often struggle to maintain growth momentum due to limited expected upside potential. In addition, high FDV tokens often lack sufficient liquidity to support their valuation, and once liquidity is insufficient, the price becomes extremely sensitive to selling pressure. This year, many projects have been criticized for issuing tokens with excessively high FDV. Marc Weinstein, a partner at crypto investment firm Mechanism Capital, once said in an interview with foreign media:
Only those short-term arbitrageurs will see low liquidity supply (overvalued low liquidity) as an opportunity for quick profit
winners and losers
Keyrock also identified the most successful and failed airdrop cases in their research. Among them, Solana trading platform Drift is one of the biggest winners. Keyrock believes that the key to its success lies in moderate issuance value and fair and carefully considered token distribution. Currently, the trading price of DRIFT tokens is nearly three times the issue price.
In addition, Keyrock further stated that Solana is the best performing memory blockchain on average for airdrops in 2024, with successful tokens such as WEN and JUP.
In contrast, the lending protocol ZkLend and the Ethereum layer 2 network Starknet performed the worst. According to Keyrock's analysis, ZkLend's ZEND token has fallen by 95% since its issuance price. Keyrock attributed the poor performance of ZkLend token to its high issuance value and the project's failure to establish sufficient influence for its brand. Keyrock states:
The situation of ZkLend is a strong warning that even if airdrops and hype can attract users, they cannot truly create value, practicality, or sustainable communities
Reference source
(责任编辑:黄金TD)
-
我希望创业者表现出来的更多是真实,我是烧钱的模式我就说我是烧钱的,真实地表达自己,总有适合你的投资人。...[详细]
-
一位用户反映,自己刚刚去了北京友友联创信息技术有限公司位于大兴区的注册地点,但“大门紧锁”。...[详细]
-
在视频中我们可以看到,在他们发生冲突时,众人如看客般在围观,有人录视频,有人打电话报警,却没有人能站出来,拉开他们。...[详细]
-
但即便收益缩水,做号诱惑依然很大。...[详细]
-
同时,我个人很警惕招那些各方面都No.1的人,这种人可能并不是真的很喜欢所做的事情,而只是因为想要成功的惯性在做事,这种思想的人其实走不远。...[详细]
-
我听了心疼啊又激动的,简直泪流满面,就像你是我的亲人一般让我骄傲,作为天蝎座的我实在不应该,说好的冷酷到底呢?马云认识我谁啊? 曾经我常跟身边的人说,我现在跟BOSS马云混。...[详细]
-
” 2017年3月晚上10:30,友友用车的联合创始人李宇正在家里带孩子时,接到一个说话很不客气的电话。...[详细]
-
您可以根据【科利客提】提供的用户操作录像和热力图,将放弃购物的客户找出来,分析他们的购物体验。...[详细]
-
不要和中小企业谈快的问题,因为他们有的是时间,但他们往往资金少,而且最缺是商机。...[详细]
-
到底是网友不出门,还是路人不上网? 讲真,这句评价还是有偏颇的,毕竟,这件事情,男子和两个女孩都有不对的地方,而且,随便一搜还是能发现不少见义勇为的事情,一棒子打死并不妥。...[详细]