Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
Seasonal bullish factors
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
(责任编辑:经济数据)
-
但是具体的来说,手游还是一个特殊的产品类别,并不容易被其他形态的产品完全挤压生存空间,所以本文里选择的竞品为直接竞品,就是另外几款MOBA类手游。...[详细]
-
只有真诚的创业,只有有责任的创业,只有能坚持到底的创业,才是一切。...[详细]
-
当音乐制作者们将合成歌曲上传至niconico后,再由其他的音乐爱好者将原创的Vocaloid歌曲以自己的嗓音进行翻唱,或者是由一些精通乐器的用户以乐器重新演奏歌曲。...[详细]
-
2,搜索结果数量:一个关键词的优化难度很多时候可以由关键词的检索结果而决定。...[详细]
-
知名交易員 Ansem 不玩迷因改捧 Sonic(原 Fantom)?AC 與 Monad 團隊成員網上開嗆
电视行业目前为止仍然是最大的广告主投放渠道,随着电视行业的衰退,互联网行业至少从盈利上来讲,会有新一波的高潮。...[详细]
-
不过,在十周年这个关键的时间点上,niconico却迎来了一个不太好的消息...[详细]
-
4月份,国内权威调研机构发布中国鞋类B2C流量排行榜,乐淘稳居第一。...[详细]
-
百度取消新闻源制度的消息可谓一石激起千层浪,铺天盖地的新闻报道翻来覆去就那几句话,你粘贴我几句,我copy你几句,估计连你旁边的猫都看烦了吧。...[详细]
-
UC震惊部的事情相当于戳破了一个泡沫,即UC头条号上很多内容官方默许标题党,标题党这这件事其实是饮鸩止渴,但经不住流量的诱惑。...[详细]
-
但在唐一看来,这样的想法完全是胡说八道,逆水行舟不进则退,中国餐饮行业竞争如此激烈,生存下去的唯一办法就是做大做强,而这样必定要借助资本力量助推。...[详细]